December 01, 2017

The Stewardship of Time

"Beware the barrenness of a busy life."

--Socrates

The first precision timepieces, invented by Dutchman Christaan Huygens in 1657, made the ancient Egyptian idea of a 24-hour day visible. Those with access to pendulum clocks and spiral-hairspring watches could begin tracking how they spent their time.   

Nearly four centuries later, the remarkable Apple Series 3 watch allows its users to know what time it is, stay connected, make calls, and receive texts--without being near an iPhone.  

Amazing.   

Think about these things

If the present moment is all we have for sure, what then is the essence of time? How are you spending--how should you be spending--this irreplaceable gift?  

Consider the following ...
  • What are you doing right now that you could drop, and it wouldn't make any difference?
  • Are you taking time to be alone with your thoughts? Those are not lost moments but time well spent--necessary to maintain your equilibrium. 
  • In the coming year, what's the most critical investment of time you can make in yourself? Your family? Your co-workers and direct reports?  
When measuring time, it's not just how you spend it; it's also what you save. Remember the maxim, "In all things, keep something in reserve."

Therefore in managing oneself, perhaps the ultimate in personal or professional success is not wearing the latest analog or digital timepiece but having peace of mind.  


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November 01, 2017

Shaping Public Opinion

"You are not entitled to your opinion. You are entitled to your informed opinion. No one is entitled to be ignorant."

--Harlon Ellison

Where do you get your news? How much do those sources influence your opinions on public policy, presidential leadership, or the country's overall direction? 

Four major platforms distribute news to U.Ss.adults. The list below shows each forum and the percentage of adults who often get their information from those sources: 

News Sources for Adults

TV--57%

Online--38%

Radio--25%

Print--20%

Source:  Pew Research Center 

According to Pew Research, "TV's staying power over print is buttressed by the fact that Americans who prefer to watch news still choose TV, while most of those who prefer to read the news have migrated online."

The digital platform continues gaining strength. The number of Americans who ever get news on a mobile device has gone up from 54% in 2013 to 72% in 2016, according to the same Pew study.

Here's another dimension to the online consumer--they're more likely to get news from professional outlets than from friends and family--but just as likely to think each provides relevant information.  

How we decide

Nearly 140 million Americans, or 60.2% of the voting-eligible population, cast a ballot in November's 2016 elections.

One year from now, those registered will have an opportunity to vote on political leadership and address their concerns about relevant issues at the ballot box. With that in mind, let's look at how public opinion has historically been shaped and formed. 

Twenty-five years ago, pollster Daniel Yankelovich wrote about how people decide in FORTUNE Magazine. His main point: "That views evolve from the unstable and flip-flopping to the mature and solid."   

Does that idea hold a quarter century later?

In the past, the public has gone through different stages of thought when confronted with public policy changes such as health care, immigration, or tax reform. Here are scenes from public opinion to the public judgment, which Yankelovich found in his own studies:

Stages of Public Opinion

Stage 1:   People begin to become aware of an issue.

Stage 2:   They develop a sense of urgency about it.

Stage 3:   They start to explore choices with the issues.

Stage 4:   Resistance to facing costs. 

Stage 5:   People weigh the pros and cons of alternatives.

Stage 6:   They take a stand intellectually.

Stage 7:   They make a responsible judgment morally and emotionally.

Thinking differently?

Is it still possible for a voting public to go through seven decision-making stages? Is breaking news short-circuiting processes of careful thought? Does the media change anyone's mind, or are most minds made up, including those of self-described independents?  

How do you decide?

A recent article in USA Today reported that 75% of those surveyed called "incivility" a national crisis, and 59% said they have quit paying attention to national politics.

Voter disengagement makes it more difficult for politicians to know which stage a particular issue has reached.  

Mr. Yankelovich observes: "Leaders attempting to communicate with the public without this information (knowing the stage) risk gridlock and frustration. Why? Because to communicate with the populace, a leader has to know where people are coming from, where they stand in their thinking now, and where they are headed."

At the same time, there's a significant role for elected officials (presidents, governors, mayors) to offer clear and compelling arguments for the direction they wish to go.    

Public policies need purpose, timeliness, and clarity to succeed. Therefore, simple policy themes, speaking to a common good, are critical for the electorate to decide what or whom to support, as the ultimate poll is taken on election day. 

Wisdom is scarce

The Internet--Facebook, Google, YouTube, and Twitter--provides easy access to reporting and commentary, and targeted advertisements. (Facebook alone delivers 517 million ad impressions per hour.) So how are voters supposed to make informed judgments based on those sources of political news and opinions? 

Discernment is certainly needed when relying on media outlets that are long on clicks and short on credibility.  

A survey from American Press Institute and the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds media's popularity at the bottom, along with Washington politicians. According to Gallup tracking data, with 2,014 adults surveyed, only 6% expressed "a lot of confidence" in the press, while the US Congress is at 7%.

When deciding, there may be some truth to an idea from 18th-century philosopher Joseph de Maistre who said: "Every nation gets the government it deserves."


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October 01, 2017

Interrupted or Disrupted?

"Disruption is a process. not an event, and innovations can only be disruptive relative to something else."

--Clayton M. Christensen

There are different kinds of interruptions in our lives. Some involve personal and family matters.

Others are work-related, such as when colleagues step into cubicles to ask a question or just chat. "The average American worker has 50 interruptions a day, of which seventy percent have nothing to do with work," said W. Edward Demings, a statistician and best-selling author.    

What about the time a colleague was interrupted as they were speaking? 

Overwhelmed by a corporate ADD, managements have been known to interrupt their strategies and plans to get there after reading a book, going to a seminar, or having a new member join the team.  

Most of the time, an interruption is something we initiate and therefore control its frequency. 

Defining our terms

What about disruptions? They're primarily external to the business. 

Most are familiar with the book, The Innovator's Dilemma, published in 1997. "The main idea is that disruptive innovation transforms a complicated, expensive product into one that is easier to use or is more affordable than the one most readily available," according to its author, Dr. Christensen.

That disruption makes it possible for a broader population to access products (Warby Parker--eyeglasses) and services (Spotify--music) previously reserved for specific market segments based on cost. (Innosight)

Another definition that quickens the pace of destructive forces is called "big-bang disruption."  As the theory goes, that kind of disruptive behavior doesn't come from competitors in the same industry or companies with a similar business model. (Downes and Nunes:  Big Bang Disruption)

And switching from one product to another was a matter of weeks, not months or years. To illustrate their point, the authors highlight free navigation apps preloaded on smartphones, doing a quick number on TomTom, Garmin, and Magellan.

Navigating disruptions

In an economy as large as the U.S., with an estimated 2016 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $18.5 trillion, there's room for several disruptive theories. Regardless of which idea you subscribe to, if any, what are ways incumbents can survive or even thrive by becoming a disruptor?

S
ome thoughts:

1. Beware mortal threats. External markets and customers continually send out signals as to shifting interests. However, those caution flags, which can become red flags, are only helpful if someone pays attention, interprets the gestures correctly, and passes on the intelligence. 

Is anyone listening?

The caveat is that consumers didn't know they wanted a minivan, a PC, or an iPhone until the products were placed in front of them.    

Being part of an inner circle is a disadvantage when minimizing disruptions. Those positions are generally too far removed from the changing tastes of ordinary people.  

If there's any good news, the pace of significant disruptions, from appearance to impact, is slower than conventional wisdom suggests. Big-bang disruption notwithstanding.  (Leinwood and Mainardi). 

Nonetheless, the arrival of a disruptive force (Netflix waiving late fees against Blockbuster) aimed in your direction (digital cameras providing instant gratification) potentially becomes a mortal threat (Facebook leveraging its platform to compete with SMS Messaging).  

2. Stay close to current users. No business should take its customers for granted. Customers today can be former customers tomorrow. That's why building relationships carries greater weight than mastering a particular kind of social media.    

The taxi industry had only to explore its customers' wants and needs to limit the damage inflicted by Uber and Lyft. Apparently, no one in the surface transportation business bothered to look in the direction of convenience.    

Consider Amazon's philosophy: "Pay attention to competitors but obsess over customers."

3. Get close to potential users. Current customers are one source of growth but have their limits. Screened carefully, potential users are another way to grow profitably.  

What do you know about potential customers? Their thinking? Their practices? Their current suppliers? What are they dissatisfied with where they currently buy? When was the last time anyone on the management team held a series of in-depth conversations with prospects and circulated those findings?      

4. Keep improving. Corporations may contribute to disruption by holding on to the status quo. Being good at manufacturing or services can be detrimental to the health of an enterprise, as success is taken for granted. 

The current business model may need to change to take on new types of competition.  

How to improve the execution of the current strategy? That's a dedicated meeting waiting to happen.    

5. Don't panic. What good does it do to hit the panic button when you see disruption coming?  

In September, there were numerous meteorologists in Florida helping us through Hurricane Irma. Working long hours, they offered spaghetti maps and cones, provided safety tips, and kept encouraging everyone to stay calm.  

Brian Shields, WFTV (ABC), Orlando, repeatedly said, "We're going to be okay." Brian was a source of emotional strength without diminishing Hurricane Irma's potential threat.  

When it comes to being disrupted, be realistic, but don't panic.

What else to learn?

If you're incapable of disrupting, look for holes in existing markets where competition is scarce. "Non-disruptive creation," promoted by W. Chan Kim and Renee Mauborgne, maybe a third option as it's not always necessary to beat the current competition. 

Sometimes the way forward is to find new markets like The Honest Company. For example, after the birth of her first child, actress Jessica Alba couldn't find high-quality, eco-friendly baby products, so she started a company with a $1 billion valuation to produce them. 

Create your future and not let others do it for you.  

Hear this

Anshu Sharma, a venture capitalist, offers this bit of wisdom:

"In terms of who wins in a given market, the fundamental question has always been, who understands the user better?"


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September 01, 2017

The Duties of a Leader

"The goal of thinking hard about leadership is not to produce great or charismatic or well-known leaders. The measure of leadership is not the quality of the head but the tone of the body."  

--Max Dupree

In 1993 I had the privilege of attending a conference sponsored by Leadership Network in Orlando, Florida. This was an opportunity to learn from better minds about sound behaviors related to leadership and management.

On the program were two men of distinction who have had a lasting impact on many individuals--Dr. William Bridges and Max Dupree.   

Dr. Bridges, who passed on February 17, 2013, at age 79, was known for his pioneering work, transforming the way people think about change. The title of his first book, Transitions, was written after the loss of his wife, Mondi. It has sold over a million copies.  

The thesis for Dr. Bridges' teaching is simple: It's essential to understand transition (internal) as a way for organizations to be successful when undertaking change (external).

"It's not the change--it's the transition"

Harvard-educated, Dr. Bridges was low-key in his approach to transition--always with practical applications. The context for that presentation in 1993 was that the topic of change was all the rage. Books were flying off the shelves (few e-books then) from experts telling all who would listen that their businesses needed to change and offering ways to make that happen.  

William Bridges reminded us that if you want to be a champion for change, it's critical to allow for the emotional and psychological responses (transitions) that employees, and organizational cultures, go through at different speeds.  

An important insight.

An absence of corporate jargon

Next came Max Dupree, author of the best-seller Leadership is An Art, first published in 1989. Mr. Dupree died on August 8, 2017, at 92.  

Mr. Dupree was a chief executive officer of the office-furniture maker Herman Miller, Inc., Zeeland, Michigan, from 1980 to 1987. He was also the son of the company's founder, D. J. Dupree, who started the business in 1923.

The signature thought in Leadership is An Art:

"The first duty of a leader is to define reality. The last is to say thank you. The leader must become a servant and debtor between the two. That sums up the progress of an artful leader." 

Max Dupree's writing was informed by his work in the family business and his Christian faith.  

Suggesting corporate leadership embrace "oddballs" and form "covenantal bonds" with employees was outside the mainstream for management books nearly three decades ago.   However, his clear thinking and fresh ideas resonated with many. Leadership is An Art sold over 800,00 copies in hardcover and paperback, influencing a generation of business and nonprofit leaders. 

Character-shaped principles 

Here are principles that guided Mr. Dupree's life:

1. The signs of outstanding leadership appear primarily among the followers. Are the followers reaching their potential? Are they learning? Serving? Do they achieve the required results? Do they change with grace? Manage conflict?

2. Try to think about a leader, in the words of the gospel writer Luke, as "one who serves."

3. Leadership is a concept of owing certain things to the institution. It is a way of thinking about institutional heirs, a way of thinking about stewardship as contrasted with ownership.

4. The art of leadership requires us to think about the leader-as-steward in terms of relationships; of assets and legacy; of momentum and effectiveness; of civility and values.

Leaders should leave behind their assets and a legacy.

5. People are the heart and spirit of all that counts. Without people, there is no need for leaders.   

6. Leaders are responsible for future leadership. They need to identify, develop, and nurture future leaders.

7. Leaders owe a certain maturity. Maturity is expressed in the sense of self-worth, a sense of belonging, a sense of expectancy, a sense of responsibility, a sense of accountability, and a sense of equality. 

Another way to think about what leaders owe is to ask this question: What is it without which this institution would not be what it is?

Final thoughts from Max Dupree

No doubt humility plays a role in the progress of an artful leader. At least, that was my impression after hearing from Mr. Dupree.  

What do his closing words below say to you?

"In a day when so much energy seems to be spent on maintenance and manuals, on bureaucracy and meaningless quantification, to be a leader is to enjoy the special privileges of complexity, of ambiguity, of diversity. 

"But to be a leader means, especially, having the opportunity to make a meaningful difference in the lives of those who permit leaders to lead."


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August 01, 2017

An Address about Justice

"The essence of justice is mercy."

--Edwin Hubbel Chapin

Here's a commencement address delivered on June 3, 2017, by U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice John G. Roberts, Jr.  It's given at the Cardigan Mountain School, Canaan, New Hampshire.  Chief Justice Roberts' son, Jack, is in the graduating class.

Cardigan is a school of privilege where graduates are going to hear from the Chief Justice about the need to experience "injustice" at some point in their lives: 

"I hope you will be treated unfairly, so that you will come to know the value of justice."

The wisdom in his speech is helpful for all ages.



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July 01, 2017

Tracking the U.S. Economy

"Stocks opened at a record high Monday, June 19, 2017, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average topping 21,453 as tech stocks rebounded from a lackluster prior week." 

--NBC News

We keep reading headlines about the Dow Jones Industrial Averages hitting new records. 

What's the Dow?

The Dow is a stock index made up of widely traded large companies created by Dow Jones & Company editor and co-founder Charles Dow in May 1896. From that beginning, only General Electric remains on the list.

There are nearly 100 indices (Nasdaq, Russell Indexes, Standard & Poor's). But the Dow Jones Industrial Average seems to get most of the attention. 

Ever wonder what companies make up the Dow 30? Here's a look at the current list:

MMM 3M

AXP American Express

AAPL Apple

BA Boeing

CAT Caterpillar

CVX Chevron

CSCO Cisco

KO Coca-Cola

DIS Disney

DD E I du Pont de Nemours and Co

XOM Exxon Mobil

GE General Electric

GS Goldman Sachs

HD Home Depot

IBM IBM

INTC Intel

JNJ Johnson & Johnson

JPM JPMorgan Chase

MCD McDonald's

MRK Merck

MSFT Microsoft

NKE Nike

PFE Pfizer

PG Procter & Gamble

TRV Travelers Companies Inc

UTX United Technologies

UNH UnitedHealth

VZ Verizon

V Visa

WMT Wal-Mart


Source:  CNN Data Dow 30


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June 01, 2017

Remembering Harry Handley 1939 - 2014

"Statistics are no substitute for judgment."

--Henry Clay

I recently received word that a former colleague and friend, Harry Handley, passed away. 

Harry would be at or near the top if I created a list of brilliant people personally known. Our meeting not long after I arrived in Central Florida in 1982 was providential. A company I owned, CRA Research Group, was looking for new business and expanding its services. Prospective clients wanted greater access to database marketing information, which was Harry's specialty.  

Obituary photo of Harry+Norris Handley, Orlando-Florida
Harry Handley (1939-2014)
Walt Disney Attractions would not be on our client list were it not for Harry's unique problem-solving skills. His was a cluttered desk but an uncluttered mind.  

A former NASA engineer and research director for ABC, Harry was a teacher, not just a demographer and statistician. One of the more important lessons he taught was to "qualify" quantitative data. Understand the numbers by knowing who or what values those numbers represent.  

Time and again, he used the illustration of focusing too much on large numbers (100,000) and not enough on qualifying the characteristics of households, even if a smaller number (10,000) represented greater profit potential.   

Why do some businesses believe casting a wider net is better for prospecting?

Because they want to cover all the possibilities. However, that tends to be a misguided approach to marketing and costly. Attracting the right customers, not chasing the wrong ones, is a better way. (See the decision by General Motors CEO Mary Barra to exit Russia, Europe, and India in favor of more profitable markets.)        

My time with Harry pre-dated the Internet and social media. It was a different era, to be sure. Yet finding the right demographics, household characteristics, and motivations for purchasing remain building blocks for successful marketing campaigns in a digital age.  

A problem with big data is that few know what to do with it. Algorithms, where computers learn and repeat human behavior, can also magnify misbehavior. And the automation of reasoning carries risk.   

Therefore, when appropriate, add to data the need for human judgment.

Such was the wisdom of Harry Handley.   


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