Improving the Worship Service Experience

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"You're not going to find the perfect church experience."

--Traci Rhoades

Historians teach that the Christian church began almost 2,000 years ago. The Greek word "ekklēsia," translated as "church" in the New Testament, simply means "assembly" or "gathering." The early Christians, mostly Jewish, borrowed the term "ekklēsia" from the popular Greek translation of the Old Testament, which referred to Israel's sacred assemblies. 

In the New Testament, the Book of Acts shows that attending church or gathering for worship and fellowship originated from the early Christian communities, which, after Jesus' death, met in small groups to share meals, teachings, and prayer. And without dedicated buildings.

In The Sabbath Complete: And the Ascendency of First Day Worship, Terrance D. O'Hare says the importance of church attendance in Christian theology is delineated in Hebrews 10:25, "Let us not neglect our church meetings, as some people do, but encourage and warn each other, especially now that the day of his coming back is drawing near."

Many have either not read Hebrews 10:25 or no longer subscribe to its teaching. In developed countries, and long before the pandemic five years ago, an increasing number of households simply stopped attending.

A global look

"About four in ten adults in the average country surveyed say they attend religious services at least weekly. But this figure varies widely in different parts of the world," the Pew Research Center reports. 

Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with predominantly Christian or Muslim populations, such as Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Uganda, tend to have the world's highest levels of regular worship attendance. 

Pew describes Europe as being on the other end of the spectrum. 

In Asia and the Pacific, weekly attendance is highest in Indonesia and lowest in Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and China. 

Gallup survey averages from 2021 through 2023 show that 30 percent of U.S. adults attend every or almost every week, and 44 percent of Protestants/Christians participate at the same frequency. 

A 2023-2024 Pew Religious Landscape study of the U.S. with more sub-group detail has Protestants at 40 percent weekly or more often, Evangelicals at 50 percent, Mainline at 23 percent, and Historically Black at 33 percent. 

Pew reports in that same Landscape study that Christianity in the U.S. has slowed its decline and may have leveled off. 

As for shifts in organized religion, the number of Protestants who self-identify as "nondenominational" has doubled since 2007, from 9 to 18 percent in Pew's most recent study. 

" ... studying religion is more prudent than trying to predict its future."

Pew says that in future years, we may see further declines in the religiousness of the American public for these reasons:

• Young adults are far less religious than older adults.
• No recent birth cohort has become more religious as it has aged.
• Compared with older adults, fewer younger adults with a highly religious upbringing are still highly religious.

The lesson here is that studying religion is more prudent than trying to predict its future.

Why go to church

Have you ever asked someone why they attend church?

A Gallup Poll taken before Easter in 2018 revealed that sermon content could be the most important factor in how soon worshippers return. Seventy-six percent of respondents noted sermons or talks that either teach about Scripture or help people connect religion to their lives as a major factor "spurring their attendance." 

Among families, spiritual programs geared toward children and youth are a main draw for 64 percent of worshippers. Community outreach, volunteer opportunities, and dynamic religious leaders are also important to the majority, at 59 and 54 percent, respectively.

A great choir, praise band, or other spiritual music was last on the list, with 38 percent saying it was important.

Who attends

People of all ages, ethnicities, and backgrounds go to church, some more frequently than others. Who are most likely to be regular attendees? Older, educated households, those in their mid-50s and up who have college degrees.

According to a Household Pulse Survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau and released in 2024, education, age, and children are the three factors driving attendance. Among those with a bachelor's degree who are parents, about 30% are weekly attendees—that's three times higher than those who do not have children.  

People with a college degree are likelier to attend than those with a high school diploma. Older more likely than younger households. Those with children participate with a higher frequency than those who don't. 

 

Professor Ryan Burge says the magic combination is clearly having a good education and being a parent—both make someone much more likely to attend church.

Faith in daily life

Gallup concludes that the primary motivation for those attending worship services is learning more about the tenets of their faith and connecting that faith to their lives. That is, taking core biblical principles and learning to apply them to everyday circumstances.

Pew says those same sermon qualities are important to about half of U.S. adults who have looked for a new church or parish at some point, most commonly because they've moved. They want a new house of worship where they like the preacher and the tone set by church leadership. 

"Fully 83 percent of Americans who have looked for a new place of worship say the quality of preaching played an important role in their choice of a congregation. Nearly as many say it was important to feel welcomed by clergy and lay leaders," Pew reported.

The style of worship service and location also factored in the decision, as 85 percent attended services at a church being considered.

As for the next generation, "The fact remains that 80 percent of young adults say growing closer to or learning about God are the two most important reasons to attend church," according to the Barna Group.

Laura Vanderkam offers sensible advice: "Treat the young as adults."

Where to begin

One way to define a worship service experience for regular attendees and visitors is any activity before, during, and after the service, whether on or off the property or online. 

That menu could include prayer, Bible reading, announcements, social media, signage, music, AV, invitations to worship, and follow-up. The appearance of the building and grounds should also be considered, as the exterior is the congregation's most visible representation.

How often do churches evaluate the corporate worship service experience? Like other concerns, most seem satisfied with their current situation.

Churches frequently continue to do what works—well past when it no longer works. Without feedback, they don't always realize when a program stops working. Loyalty enables churches and ministries to decline, as their members don't always abandon them overnight. It also allows churches to repair themselves if they desire to do so.

Three of the most significant changes within a faith community are the lead pastor's departure, the move to a new location, and a name change.

In any of those situations, we recall Dr. William Bridges' counsel that it's not the change that gets us; it's the transition.

How to improve

A common mistake in rethinking any component of a church ministry (or anything with a public interface) is localizing the improvement, not connecting the effort to the church as a whole. The net effect can potentially lower the church's performance as a whole. Isolated improvements can actually make matters worse, as Boudwijn Bertsch from the Netherlands has shown in his studies.

For example, attracting families with infants (who are significantly more likely to be in church than those who are raising older kids) without a clean, safe, and supervised nursery can be a problem. Launching an initiative for community engagement without enough advance notice and training can be self-defeating.

"While no church can do everything, 

every church can do something ..." 

Corporate worship is indispensable within the body life of a church, but it does not stand alone. A community of faith cannot be divided into independent parts without losing its strengths. Any significant improvement or change in corporate worship will likely spill over into other areas, such as small groups, youth and children's ministries, ushers, and greeters. 

It's helpful to create an improvement checklist and review it periodically. Ask how the church can do better; some will be reluctant to speak. Members who leave seldom say why. Visitor comments provide a different but much-needed perspective. Letting them know their opinions are important is a wise thing to do. 

Know your strengths and lean into them. Avoid comparing your church to others. Although some decisions are irreversible, be prepared to modify changes that may need adjustment. Use a trial period if appropriate. 

To maintain credibility, and certainly as a courtesy, leadership should explain changes, why, and potential benefits.

While no church can do everything, every church can do something to make a difference in someone's life. 

Attending in propria persona

Here is a quote from a previous Strategist Post that bears repeating:

"Virtual services, webcasting, and online Bible studies are certainly better than no religious participation. However, none is likely a fully adequate replacement for the in-person meetings and community," wrote Harvard professor Tyler J. VanderWeele, who studies these interactions. 

Digital worship, like remote work and schooling, lessens the magnitude of a communal experience. Of course, health, job schedules, and caregiving are legitimate reasons for online worship. That format helps avoid social isolation, which may be harmful. 

Alternatively, in-person worship is a layer deeper than virtual worship; let's call it presence, which is what ministry is meant to be.

Online and electronic giving are acts of worship and reliable sources of income. Still, in-person per capita giving is twice that of those who worship remotely, according to a 2023 study by the Hartford Institute of Religion Research. 

A church home

While focusing on faith's vital benefits, we sometimes forget that religion offers additional support. "There is a mounting body of empirical evidence suggesting that people who are active in their faith tend to be the recipients of several important physical and mental health benefits," says Byron Johnson, professor of social sciences at Baylor University.

Jeff Haanen, founder of the Denver Institute for Faith and Works, writes about the potential gains from frequent in-person worship attendance:

"Sociologists say church involvement is associated with many benefits for children and adults. Kids who go to church have higher academic achievement, better relationships with parents, and more participation in extracurricular activities. 

"Churchgoers are in better health and live longer." 

And they're the most generous with their charitable contributions to religious and secular causes.

Breaking bread

Potluck dinners could be the beginning of much-needed fellowship and support for people from all walks of life. There are numerous unchurched, and loneliness is a global health concern. The right response is to be inviting, welcoming, and caring. 

To paraphrase Russel Ackoff, "A church is as good as the product of its interactions."

Even if those new to a faith community don't fully understand what it's about, they'll know kindness when encountered, which is "the early church" way of improving a worship service experience. 

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Leading With Self-Control

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"Let your breath be the first word."

—Jefferson Fisher

What contributes to CEO failure? 

"How do CEOs blow it? More than any other way by failure to put the right people in the right jobs—and the related failure to fix people problems in time," says Ram Charan and Geoffrey Colvin in a timeless FORTUNE magazine article published in June 1999. 

"Specifically, failed CEOs are often unable to deal with a few key subordinates whose sustained poor performance deeply harms the company. Everyone around the leader knows about these problems, but their opinions are ignored," the writers added. 

CEOs know there's a problem, but they suppress it. 

The article concludes that the failure is one of emotional strength.

Defining self-control

Self-control plays three vital roles: thinking before acting, controlling disruptive emotions and impulses, and saying "no" to temptation. However important this characteristic is, it's often overlooked when hiring. 

Dr. Christopher Barnes from the University of Washington reports that self-control varies over time within the same person. 

The studies point in these directions:

• It's a time-limited response. Too much is used in one place, leaving less to be used in another. 
• Think of it as a finite cognitive resource. Exerting self-control can negatively affect future self-control if not replenished.
• As self-control depletes, one is more likely to succumb to temptation. Even good people can have weak moments.
• Different types of self-control tap into the same pool of limited resources.

Temperament (personality) and self-control are closely related but not the same. Temperament is innate and influenced by biological factors. Self-control, learned over time, is the key to managing one's temperament effectively. 

Desirable habits

Embracing self-control has many rewards, including better people decisions.

A self-regulated condition means eating healthy, improving job performance, and forming higher-quality friendships. Inspiring and intellectually challenging associates rather than abusing and micro-managing them is a plus.

Without self-control, we revert to impulsive decision-making, emotional outbursts, and difficulty managing stress. The literature cautions against sending a text or email or calling someone when angry, as words written or spoken can never be returned. 

Judicious restraint using the 24-hour reply rule is a teachable moment, as others pay more attention to what we do than what we say.

A reflective leader

Psychologists define reflection as evaluating our thoughts, behaviors, and motivations. This process is about self-awareness, knowing who we are, and clarifying the boundaries of our lives. Furthermore, this prearranged time helps us assess the quality of our circumstances. 

In the age of noise, leaders need to be alone and offline. As the playwright Jon Fosse declares, "The silence speaks."

Suppose we don't periodically reflect on what matters to us. In that case, we can be misdirected by outdated thinking. Or, confused by a disorienting culture whose moral fabric is rated poor by 54 percent of U.S. adults, according to a 2024 Gallup Poll. In that same survey, 83 percent of respondents said that moral values are worsening.  

"Leaders have to get outside the emotional climate of the day," writes Edwin Friedman in A Failure of Nerve—Leadership in the Age of the Quick Fix. "Vision is generally considered a cerebral event, but the ability to see things differently is an emotional phenomenon," he notes in his last book.  

Widely respected, Friedman, a rabbi turned consultant, makes clear that when attempting to engineer an organizational renaissance, those at the top have to muster the inner strength to overcome resistance and rejection, especially from those within who may have lost their will and way.

The gift of sleep

If energy is the fuel for self-control, how do we tank or power up?

Certainly, diet, exercise, and fresh air make a big difference. Experiencing new environments and including individuals of strong character in our circle of friends helps greatly. Continuous learning renews our minds. Don't forget the encouragement and support from families. 

Nevertheless, a good night's rest is the greatest daily power source for regaining emotional strength and self-control, which can positively influence one's temperament. After all, the wisdom of ruling our spirit is a time-honored instruction. 

Mayo Clinic recommends that adults sleep at least seven hours each night. However, the quality of sleep and routine matter more than the number of hours. REM (Rapid Eye Movement) and deep sleep are required to improve cognitive function and memory, reduce stress, and boost the immune system. Sleep also has a physical healing quality.

Sleep psychologist Dr. Michelle Drerup suggests that the bedroom temperature should be 60 to 67 degrees (15-19 C). "It should be cool, dark, and quiet to enhance sleep," she notes. 

Can you ever make up for lost sleep?

"We don't know," says Dr. David Gozal of the University of Chicago. "If a person goes without sleep for just one night and tries to replace that lost sleep—to repay that sleep debt in just a day or two, most likely they will be able to regain normal function. But getting extra sleep does not immediately restore all systems," Dr. Gozal quickly adds. 

Buffer days

The late Bob Buford, co-founder of Leadership Network with Fred Smith, liked introducing something he had been thinking about when opening the Network's conferences. One idea that sticks in my mind is inserting "buffer days" into busy schedules—perhaps one or two days to rest—for you and your colleagues, too.

Back-to-back meetings are sometimes a reality. Red-eye flights may be necessary, and overseas travel can cause jet lag. However, an intermittent buffer day can provide emotional strength, offsetting the physical and mental strain of demanding responsibilities.  

Author Alan Cohen sums it up this way: "There is virtue in work, and there is virtue in rest. Use both and overlook neither."

Sources: Self-control: A vital behavior for leaders everywhere, Sarah Mangia, The Ohio State University, September 15, 2020; Leadership Takes Self-Control. Here's What We Know About It, Kai Chi Yam, Hulwen Lian, D. Lance Ferris, and Douglas Brown, Harvard Business Review, June 5, 2017; Sleep Deprived People Are More Likely to Cheat, Christopher M. Barnes, Harvard Business Review, May 31, 2013; The Skill that Matters Most, Tony Schwartz, Harvard Business Review, September 13, 2011; A Neglected But Essential Leadership Trait--Why Self-Control Really Matters, Prudy Gouirguecheon, Forbes, April 3, 2018. 

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A Close Look At Skechers Successful Strategy

  

© Skechers

"Opportunities multiply as they are seized." 

--Sun Tzu

Howie Long is an NFL All-Pro defensive end and Hall of Famer who played 13 seasons for the Los Angeles and Oakland Raiders. Long is now a studio analyst for Fox Network's NFL coverage. 

While preparing to write the February Strategist Post, Long appeared in a larger-than-life display advertisement that took up one-third of page 5 in Section 1 of a recent edition of the Orlando Sentinel newspaper. 

In the ad, he wears a white T-shirt, light grey khaki pants, and a navy letterman's jacket. The 6' 5" former tight end and defensive lineman from Villanova University holds a college football (the one with stripes) in both hands and wears dark grey, hands-free, slip-in Skechers shoes (similar in style to the one above). 

The copy reads, "No bending over. No touching shoes. Just step in and go." 

Howie Long's endorsement and those of other football stars, including Joe Montana, golfer Brooke Henderson, and entertainment figures like Martha Stewart, Willie Nelson, and Snoop Dog, have helped make Skechers--a Fortune 500© company with global sales of $9 billion in 2024--the third-best-selling shoe behind Nike and Adidas. 

Skechers backstory

How did a footwear brand based in Manhattan Beach, California, come to offer over 900 shoe styles and have 5,000 stores in 120 countries without generating much media attention? 

The correct answer is slowly.

In 1983, Skechers founder Robert Greenberg and his son, Michael, started L.A. Gear (with endorsements from Wayne Gretzky and Kareem-Abduhl-Jabbar) after an unsuccessful attempt to sell roller skates. Skechers emerged after the Greenbergs left L.A. Gear in 1992 over a dispute with the board of directors. The original plan was to distribute Dr. Martens's shoes, but that arrangement left the Greenbergs with little say about product development and quality control. 

They really wanted their own shoe--and control over its fate in their hands.

The strategic concept

A careful reading of Skechers' history shows that the Greenbergs, with Robert, now 84, as chair and Michael as president, learned from their decade-long experiences that to be successful, one must concentrate on a few things and do them well. 

Product innovation (comfort technology) is the driving force behind style, quality, and affordability. Together, they create a brand identity that must be carefully guarded, and that's what the Greenbergs do: guard the brand. 

Packaging the strategic idea is one thing. Executing is another. 

Marketing plays an important role with generous ad spaces, glossy magazines, large billboards, and television advertisements featuring celebrities wearing Skechers shoes. 

Despite the more contemporary ad campaigns, Skechers still has an image problem, reinforced by ads like the one with Howie Long. They're associated with selling "old people's shoes." (I have a pair of Skechers and their slip-in golf shoes, which is an unpaid endorsement.) 

Product diversification continues across new markets. Skechers is expanding into team sports like soccer and basketball. 

Harry Kane of England's national soccer team has a lifetime endorsement deal for Skechers' soccer cleats. The NBA's Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers and Julius Randle of the New York Nicks endorse basketball shoes. 

Filling in the holes

An important lesson about Greenberg's achievement is that they found market gaps--young professional athletes, women, families with children, new lifestyles, and, yes, older adults--and are filling them in. Skechers now offers a pickleball shoe made of Goodyear rubber that retails for $115.

What's common to all products? The calculated idea that comfort, style, quality, and affordability are a winning combination. 

Skechers got a boost from Nike*, which closed its stores after the pandemic to focus on wholesaling and direct-to-consumer sales. Nike's price points don't often go below $100, while Skechers offers a variety of styles for less. Their GORUN shoe sells for $45 at Walmart. Children's shoes are around $30 on Amazon, which appeals to price-conscious parents.

In addition to being helped by other shoe companies that stick to their specialties, such as Hoka, which markets to hardcore runners, Skechers is benefiting from cultural changes: people wearing sneakers and sports apparel for non-sports occasions, like the office and social occasions. 

Sometimes, a strategy needs a break from the competition or marketplace to succeed.

An original work

Robert and Michael Greenberg have built a remarkable business, but they would be the first to say they haven't done it alone. Any creative idea pursuing that much growth requires others to achieve its aims. Widespread knowledge among associates of how Skechers differs and why is fundamental to its financial fortune. 

No idea or business constructed by human powers endures forever in its original form. Maintaining product innovation as Skechers' heart and soul while profitably seizing the right opportunities is an investment in its future but not a guarantee.

*Nike is suing Skechers for design infringement. Skechers said it will "vigorously" defend the 2023 patent suit. 

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How Organizations Really Work

(C) Used with permission.

"The sinkhole of change is communication and motivation. It's where change projects go to die."

--Nancy Rothbard, Ph.D.

Bayer, the German conglomerate that invented aspirin in its earliest days, is trying to reinvent itself. 

CEO Bill Anderson is one year into restructuring the company's pharma commercial team in response to a crushing €34.5 billion debt, the litigation-intensive $63 billion acquisition of Monsanto, the parent company of the Roundup weed killer, and the upcoming loss of exclusivity for the blood-clot medication Xarelto. 

Bayer, also home to Flinstone vitamins and Alka-Seltzer, eliminated managers and annual budgets, which Anderson calls the "belly of the beast of bureaucracy," and asked staff to organize themselves into 90-day "sprints" in self-directed teams. 

"Dynamic Shared Ownership" (DSO) proposes reducing bureaucracy, accelerating decision-making, bringing employees and customers closer together, improving overall operational performance, and radically realigning Bayer's internal culture. 

"The beauty of this system is we're not perfecting it before we start," says Christine Roth, head of global commercialization at Bayer's pharmaceutical division. "We're getting to a good place where we can start to experiment and go. And we will learn to adjust as we go," Roth emphasized.

The DSO plan works and becomes a Harvard Case Study on transformation or falls into the heavily populated category of failed corporate change, where nearly 70 percent end up. Or something in between.

Under Bayer's circumstances, doing nothing is not an option.

The role of culture

Dr. James O'Toole, author of Leading Change and former program director at The Aspen Institute, defines culture as a system of beliefs and actions that characterizes a particular group. He includes shared ideas, customs, assumptions, expectations, philosophy, traditions, mores, and values in that definition.

Historically, grasping corporate culture resulted from in-person socialization, close observations of behavior, and conversations with peers and supervisors. Informal mentoring played a big role in the assimilation process. 

Can what was once learned on-site be interpreted virtually?

The Iceberg graphic shows that the more heavily promoted values at the top, such as vision, strategy, and goals, may have less influence than originally thought. Stories, unwritten rules, and traditions at the bottom may impact culture more. Will the approximately 90 percent unseen volume of the iceberg retain its influence in hybrid work cultures? 

Change is hard but possible

What have we learned in a half-century of studying organizational dynamics? The critical importance of everyday relationships. That's a quality you can't do without. Credibility doesn't show up at the last minute when change needs to happen, or a crisis occurs. It's there, or it's not.

There's a huge difference between nurtured and neglected bureaucracies. The former are healthy and adaptive, while the latter struggle to achieve common goals. 

What drives sweeping change? 

An existential threat, such as debt at Bayer or catastrophic accidents involving Boeing planes in 2018 and 2019, killing 346 passengers and crew that grounded the 737 Max jets.  

"Top management teams that are diverse in time orientation, tenure, and experience increase the probability of strategic change," says Success with Change author Patricia McLagan.

Anticipating something new

There are three pre-conditions for effective change:

The first is trust. 

Dr O'Toole writes: "Trust is created by leaders' manifest respect for their followers." 

"People have to believe in you and what you are trying to do," says Paul Brown with FTI Consulting. 

Therefore, mutual trust is necessary.

Secondly, leadership has to gauge the capacity to change. Restructurings or turnarounds can't happen without building on existing capacity. You bring change by working with the system; you can't pretend the system doesn't exist. 

Finally, anticipate people's concerns. They are not only predictable but also addressable. Sometimes, resistance identifies alternative options and produces better results. Associates don't actually resist change; they simply resist being controlled.

Improving the chances of success

Make a case for change: Explain your motivations to employees repeatedly and in detail. Take the time to build a compelling case. Allow for questions and feedback. Announcing change isn't the same as implementing it. Show everyone where the enterprise is, where it should go next, and how to get there by working collaboratively. A realistic timeline helps. 

Involve associates from the beginning. Credit them for being smart and include them in every stage. People don't want to be sold on change. They want to understand it and participate in making it happen. Deliberately engage their hearts and minds. Let them influence its nature and direction. Those directly affected by these decisions need time to make the required transitions. Implementation happens here. 

Maintain integrity throughout the process. Proposals and the leaders who sponsor them aren't perfect. Acknowledging this upfront is an act of humility, not weakness. If leadership communicates probabilities instead of certainty, much can be said. Updating formal and informal channels with the latest information is better than rumor-filled vacuums. Progress, more than success, is the measuring stick of change.

Remember that cultural icebergs are mainly below the surface.

Sources:  Controlling the Perils of Change, Mary Lee Olson, T + D Magazine, 2008; The Irrational Side of Management, McKinsey Quarterly, 2013; Partners In Change, Paul B. Brown, Inc., 2001; Leading Change, James O'Toole; Jossey-Bass, 1995, Cracking the Code of Change, Nitin Nohria and Michael Beer, Harvard Business Review, 2000; Success with Change, Patricia McLagan, T +D Magazine, 2002-2003; The Change Monster, Jeanie Daniel Duck, Crown, 2002; Communicating Change, TJ Larkin and Sandra Larkin, McGraw-Hill 1994. 

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Why Averages Are Misleading

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"The average investor buys high and sells low."

--Ray Dalio

The chairman of Vector Economics, Sam Savage, shares the story of a statistician who drowns while fording a river that he calculates is, on average, three feet deep. "If he were alive to tell the tale, he would expound on the 'flaw of averages,' which simply states that plans based on assumptions about average conditions usually go wrong." 

Mr. Savage, who also lectures at Stanford and Cambridge on risk modeling, says, "This unseen flaw shows up everywhere, distorting accounts, undermining forecasts, and dooming well-considered projects to disappointing results."

A problem with averages

A former client, Brad Hewitt, then CEO of Minneapolis-based Thrivent, first brought the problem of averages to our attention. He recently explained it this way:

"I was a math (statistics) major in college. One part of that coursework was a section on how to tell if someone was lying using statistics. It was eye-opening, and averages were among the best ways to mislead. A professor would say, 'If you put one foot in ice cold water and the other foot in boiling water on average, it would be just right.' 

"Averages  (means, modes, arithmetic, etc) are valuable, but one must look carefully at what they say. Unfortunately, people often have a point of view, and statistics are simply a way to prove their point, not help them gain insight into data," Hewitt concluded.

What specifically should concern us about averages?

The problem with averages is that they can easily obscure the reality of the situation. 

"While averages can provide a simple summary of complex data, they can also distort reality, hiding important variations and nuances with the data," writes Reagan Pannell, CEO of Leanscape. "Averages can be useful for providing a quick snapshot, but they mustn't be the sole metric relied upon for decision-making or understanding a situation," he adds. 

Some examples

Think of baseball batting averages, which Sabermetrics considers a weak performance measure. On-base plus Slugging (OPS) may be a better way to judge a batter's value to their team, but do fans know what that stat means? Do they even care?

Consumers rely on average annual rainfall amounts from their local meteorologists (54 inches in Florida) because they are simple to compute and understand. Yet those averages are only sometimes reliable, failing to account for inconsistent patterns within a year (like hurricane or dry seasons).

Average is a mathematical term, and research suggests it should be so confined. You can't average people (only numbers of people) or concepts or opinions. One person suggested using the word "typical" as an alternative. 

Does that mean the average person is a myth?

This is likely since that definition relies on a single 'average' value and can ignore individual differences and complexities. 

Beware these conditions

Circumstances to avoid:

• Using averages to compare different groups. 
• Applying group behavior to individuals.
• Allowing extreme results to influence averages.
• Fixating on a single number--which is an oversimplified view of reality.  

One way around these pitfalls is to consider probability distributions instead of single numbers. A histogram is a simple way to view a distribution. (linkedin.com/pulse/deceptive-art-using-averages-unveiling-statistical-tricks)

What can we learn?

Consultant Pennell believes we should look beyond averages.

"Consider data distribution, the outliers, and other measures like median and mean. Understanding the range and variance can also provide insights into the spread and inconsistency of data."

Pennell balances the scale:

1. Averages are not inherently bad. They do offer a quick snapshot of data and simplify complex datasets.

2. Use averages as a starting point, but explore other statistical measures.

3. Beware of outliers, as they can significantly skew your average and create a misleading data representation.

4. Tools like AI can provide valuable insights beyond the average, though you should never remove the human mind when analyzing data.

Coin of the realm

Sam Savage, whom we quoted initially, is also the author of The Flaw of Averages. Instead of saying, "Give me a number for my report," he believes every executive should say, "Give me a distribution for my simulation."

If followed, Savage's advice could improve planning and outcomes and establish a more credible standard of leadership. 

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© Bredholt & Co. 

 

Keeping Middle-Class Philanthropy Alive

(C) MYRA

"The charity that is trifle to us can be precious to others." 

 —Homer

Who are the most generous financial givers? 

The short answer is individuals. 

Giving USA's Annual Report on charitable contributions, published in June of this year (for 2023), shows that of the $557.16 billion given, 67 percent, or $374.40 billion, came from individuals, an increase of 1.9 percent over 2022. 

Next are foundations, which gave 19 percent, or $103.53 billion, up 1.7 percent from the previous year. Bequests, at 8 percent, or 42.68 billion, gained 4.8 percent, and finally, corporations, with 7 percent, or $36.55 billion, increased by 3.0 percent over 2022. 

These are current dollars as overall inflation-adjusted giving declined 2.1 percent for the year. Individual giving as a share of disposable income was only 1.9 percent—close to the all-time low of 1.7 percent in 2022. 

The top three recipients were religion*, which received $145.81 billion; human services, $88.84 billion; and education, $87.69 billion. 

In 2023, an outpouring of generosity produced record-high giving from resilient but changing donors. 

Generosity—an expression of faith

"In study after study, says Karl Zinsmeister, author of The Almanac of American Philanthropy, "religious practice is the behavioral variable with the strongest and most consistent association with generous giving."

Here are Internet headlines from the past few years that underscore that point:

"The Gospel of Generosity: Study finds Scripture-engaged Americans are among the most generous"

"People who attend church regularly are more likely to donate to charities"

"The more people go to church, the more they give to church, study shows"

While those stories reflect American findings, Gallup surveys conducted from 2005 to 2009 in 145 countries revealed that these same religious practices held true internationally. 

In an article in Philanthropy, Zinsmeister offers the following insights:

• Among Americans who attend services weekly and pray daily, 45% had volunteered during the previous week.
• Two-thirds of people who worship at least twice a month give to secular causes, compared to half of non-attenders.
• Seven of ten weekly church attenders told Pew Research they consider "work to help the needy" an "essential part" of their faith. 
• Religion annually contributes an estimated $1.2 trillion of socio-economic value to the U.S. economy. That total is more than the combined revenue of America's ten biggest tech giants and the total economy of all but 14 nations.

A new study by Indiana University and the University of Notre Dame found that charitable giving fell by about $20 billion in 2018 after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was passed by the U.S. Congress. 

However, according to that same study, the TCJA's increase in the standard (vs. itemized) deduction, which 90 percent of filers took in 2021 and is being raised for the 2024 tax season, had little to no effect on giving to houses of worship. 

In another article, "Less God, Less Giving?" Karl Zinsmeister notes:

"It's clear that America's unusual religiosity and extraordinary generosity are closely linked. As faith spirals downward, voluntary giving is very likely to follow. An obvious question for philanthropists is whether the causation arrow can be reversed." 

Blinking lights

What's happening in charitable giving over the donor spectrum, particularly middle-class philanthropy? 

1. Giving is increasing because of large gifts from wealthy donors. Smaller and mid-level donors are slowly disappearing across the broad range of nonprofits. This impacts local charities like food pantries, YMCAs, and libraries. Large gifts tend to go to medical centers and museums. (See Dr. Ruth Gottesman's $1 billion gift to the Albert Einstein School of Medicine, Bronx, New York.)

2. The number of giving households is decreasing from all economic strata. Volunteerism is also in decline. 

3. One-time donors giving less than $500 and $100 are collapsing. These are 98 percent of all givers.  

4. Retention rates are declining among all donor categories.

5. Inflation is a thief but doesn't completely explain certain sectors' decline. Last year, considerable sums were spent on consumer goods, travel, and entertainment in the U.S. 

6. The percentage of Americans who gave to religious causes is decreasing with attendance at worship services. 

The Great Recession (2007-2009) made it difficult for some younger Americans to establish a habit of giving. Only one-third of households aged 40 and under gave to charities in 2018. 

What factors motivate them to give, especially if they don't attend worship services or belong to networks encouraging giving?

Communicating well

Some observers believe that decreases in giving are often attributable to communication lapses and ineffective messages, as donors are looking for reasons to give.

"People give to causes they consider important regardless of their income and expenses," reports the American Bible Society in their annual study of giving. "The spirit of generosity in the U.S. remains strong," said Michael Tomlinson, president of the BDI Fundraising Agency.

How do those with expertise suggest improving donor relationships and successfully sharing the worthiness of your cause? 

By doubling down on building trust with donors and inviting others into the fold. Transparency and accountability are paramount.

Demonstrating the impact of donor investment.

Crafting content with engagement in mind. What would that look like?

Telling great stories and harnessing technology to support people in need. The premium is on stories that speak to the heart and mind. 

When it comes to bequests, don't overlook smaller or mid-size donors, as they may be able to make a larger gift someday. 

And don't forget to say "thank you" for even the smallest contributions.

*Giving to religion, as defined by Giving USA, includes churches and mission organizations.

Sources: Indiana University Lilly School of Philanthropy; BDI; Mission Wired; The Chronicle of Philanthropy; Philanthropy Roundtable; New York Times; American Bible Society; Boomerang; and The Wall Street Journal.  

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Every Organization Is Sinkable

(C) Strings Magazine

"Contrary to popular mythology, Titanic was never described as 'unsinkable' without qualification until after she sank."

—Richard Howells

Did an iceberg in the North Atlantic cause the RMS Titanic, the world's largest vessel, to begin sinking around 11:40 p.m. on April 14, 1912, off Newfoundland? Less than three hours later, the ship plunged 12,500 feet or 2.5 miles at a speed of 35 to 40 knots (40 to 46 mph), leaving an impact on the sea floor that is still visible today.

Of the 2,224 passengers and crew, nearly 1,500 died in that preventable tragedy. 

Damaged from the inside out

Or maybe it was something else, such as a broken organizational culture at Harland & Wolf, the Titanic's Belfast builder, or the White Star Line headquartered in Liverpool, England, which owned and operated the luxurious ocean liner.

"The Titanic was doomed from the start due to a flawed corporate culture," concluded Darry Wright, a senior global executive with EY Canada who studied the accident. 

"It was not the iceberg that led to the downfall of the ship; rather, it was a culture of overconfidence, narrow-mindedness—and a lack of balance between innovation and risk. Leaders who did not acknowledge the intrinsic flaws (rivet failure and open portholes) in the ship's design," Wright added.

How dangerous is it to overestimate our abilities or knowledge when needing more expertise in a particular area? Very. (Dunning-Kruger effect)

The Titanic's crew and modern management have this in common—the practice of ignoring legitimate warnings. 

On April 14, 1912, a British merchant ship, the SS Mesaba, sent a radio warning about an ice field with large icebergs and heavy icepacks. That message never reached the bridge. At 10:55 p.m., the SS California radioed the Titanic, saying it was stopped and "fully surrounded by ice."  The Californian's crew later misinterpreted Titanic's calls for help.

Before leaving Southampton, Captain Edward Smith knew the drift ice field was larger and further south than in previous years. 

At the time of the accident, the Titanic was sailing at 22 knots (25 mph), two knots below its maximum speed.

The Titanic Syndrome lecture links an overreliance on past success to the night's complications. The captain and crew were experienced at sea under normal sailing conditions. But how can a spotter see afar with the binoculars missing in the Crow's Nest? Or what does a captain do after hitting an iceberg with insufficient liferafts onboard?

Organizational icebergs

The International Ice Patrol says an iceberg is a piece of freshwater ice over 15 meters or 16 yards long that has broken off a glacier or ice shelf and is floating freely in the water. Icebergs vary considerably in size and shape. 

According to the Polar Times, the largest iceberg on record was sighted by the USS Glacier on November 12, 1956, west of Scott Island in the South Pacific Ocean. At 335 by 97 kilometers (208 by 60 miles), it was larger than Belgium. A study by The Ohio State University suggests that about one-tenth of the volume of an iceberg is above water and follows Archimedes' Principle of Buoyancy.  

Two of the biggest icebergs threatening businesses and nonprofits are the absence of mutual trust among colleagues and an inability to recognize emerging internal and external realities. Both contribute to strenuous transitions when changes are needed with people, products, or services. 

Broken cultures sink strategies. 

MIT research shows that it takes more than a narrative to repair cultures, as there is often a gap between what is said and what is done. That study says 88% of employees report a lack of organizational preparedness in facing new challenges. 

Repairing the damage includes finding the glue to hold everyone together, clearing out the noise overtaking vital communication, and clarifying what is unique and special about the enterprise. 

Saying it, talking about it, and writing it down doesn't make it so.

Small holes—sizeable destruction

A 1996 exploration of scientists and engineers underwritten by the Discovery Channel found six thin openings across the Titanic's starboard hull, which were likely the cause of its physical demise. The total area of damage is 12-13 square feet or less than the area of two sidewalk squares. 

"It was not the size but the placement of the openings across six watertight holds," says William H. Garzke Jr, a naval architect. "Everything that could go wrong did. Those half-dozen slits let in 39,000 tons of water, sinking the Titanic," the investigators wrote.

Would there have been less damage at slower speeds? The experts say yes. 

Under the right conditions, any ship can sink.

Paying respects

On June 18, 2023, a month before our Transatlantic Crossing on Cunard's Queen Mary 2 from Brooklyn, New York, to Southampton, England, the Titan submersible imploded while on an exploration of the Titanic site. All five on board were killed. Stockton Chase, CEO of OceanGate, Titan's owner, was among those who lost their lives that day. 

Warnings about the Titan's safety were widely shared but not addressed. 

As the QM2 approaches the coast of Newfoundland heading eastbound, the Titanic site is displayed on a screen in the cabin. Captain Andrew Hall announced on this trip that the QM2 would sail north of the Titanic site. The horns will blast to pay respects to those whose lives were lost on that fateful voyage 111 years ago.

At the Sunday worship service sponsored by the QM2, the congregation sings the British hymn, "Eternal Father, Strong to Save." Written in 1860 by William Whiting, the anthem was inspired by the dangers of the sea described in Psalms 107.  

The last word

The BBC reported that one of the Titan submersible crew's final messages was, "All good here."

The surviving second officer on the Titanic, Charles Lightoller, was quoted in the film A Night to Remember as saying, "We were so sure."

This is a tale of two unique vessels, one very large and the other very small, whose fates were determined not from the outside but from the inside out. 

As you go about your work, keep that life-saving lesson in mind.

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