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—William Gibson
He made tomorrow seem joyfully possible.
Attendance at a seminar decades ago in Orlando, Florida, featuring John Naisbett, was revealing, not for the contents of his 1982 best-selling book, Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives, which were already known, but for the speaker's optimism and excitement about the future.
Naisbett, whose specialty was futures studies using content analysis, was on The New York Times best-seller list for two years, mostly at the top. The book was published in 57 countries and sold over 14 million copies.
Some predictions were on the money, such as moving from an industrial to an information-based society, the rise of decentralized organizations, and the importance of biotechnology.
He thought that China and India's production capabilities would become increasingly irrelevant. Instead, they're among the top five countries in global manufacturing, with China number one, according to Safeguard Global reports.
Then there's this: "The political left and right are dead; all the action is being generated by a radical center." Just the opposite turned out to be the case.
As the Danish physicist, Niels Bohr, once said, "If you predict for a living, you have to predict often."
What's already underway?
Naisbett, who passed in April 2021 at 92, said, "Trends, like horses, are easier to ride in the direction they are going."
His approach highlighted the importance of paying attention to underlying trends near you that are not yet obvious to everyone. Pattern recognition, an early awareness of themes that make sense of the world, is important for survival.
Naisbett's associates read small-town newspapers to understand personal, social, and consumer behavior. Also, local politics. According to Northwestern University's Local News Initiative, over 3,000 print publications have closed or merged since 2005, rendering that technique obsolete.
Unfolding in the moment
Here are developing stories of interest from our perspective:
Population growth continues. Dudley L. Poston, Jr., a professor of sociology at Texas A & M University, shines a light on this topic.
There will be more of us. At the start of 2020, the U.S. population totaled 321 million. It is likely to reach 350 million by 2030, and remain the third-largest country. China and India will remain the two largest countries, but India will overtake China as the most populous with 1.5 billion people by the end of this decade.
Fewer babies are being born, bringing birth rates below replacement levels in Europe, Africa, Russia, parts of Latin America, and the U.S. How can a country grow with declining birth rates? Even with fewer babies per couple, a large cohort of young adults can result in more total births, says the Population Reference Bureau.
The population will get older. In 10 years, there will be almost as many old folks (74.1 million) as younger ones (76.3 million). Many of the elderly will be baby boomers.
Racial proportions will shift. At the beginning of the decade, non-Hispanic whites were still the majority race in the U.S., representing 59.7% of the population. By 2030, whites will have dropped to 55.8% of the population, and Hispanics will have grown to 21.1%. The percentage of black and Asian Americans will also increase significantly.
A two-tier economy is driving growth — for now. There is a widening gap between high-income households and asset owners, who are thriving, while middle-income families struggle with stagnant wages and rising costs.
The U.S. added approximately 379,000 millionaires in 2024, averaging 1,000 a day, according to the UBS Global Wealth Report. They join an estimated 24 million "millionaire population." That affluence shows itself in travel and leisure, real estate, investment opportunities, and philanthropy.
Moody's Analytics reports that the top 10% of U.S. households now account for nearly half of all spending, which is up from 35% in the early 1990s.
"This is a post-pandemic look driven by soaring stock/housing values for the rich and reduced purchasing power for others," says economist Peter Atwater. That helps explain why affordability is a major issue for many individuals and families, with middle-income households spending selectively during the recent Christmas season.
The corrosive effects of inflation. Even when inflation subsides, prices don't always follow. Utilities, insurance, vehicles, food staples (meat, dairy, coffee, baked goods), and repairs remain high. Rent and home maintenance are significant expenses. Drug, egg, and oil prices have come down.
Inflation erodes purchasing power and stealthily steals the value of your savings and income over time. The overall inflation rate in the U.S. remains elevated, at 3% over the past year and 2.7% currently, well above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. A single percentage point makes a big difference. At 3%, prices will double in 24 years; at 2%, it would take 36 years.
AI arrives but requires human supervision. News about what AI can or will do appears daily. Immediate results are seen in disease detection and healthcare treatments. Small businesses are using generative AI to feed information from point-of-sale systems and QuickBooks for analysis. It's like having their own CFO.
In September of last year, ChatGPT, the leading consumer AI model, had almost 800 million active weekly users, according to the Times.
Gartner forecasts that worldwide spending on AI will total $1.5 trillion in 2025, with a large share allocated to data centers.
Norway's NEMKO, a safety testing and equipment approval foundation, posted, "Integrating human oversight throughout the AI lifecycle is crucial for organizations. This integration ensures that AI systems are not just technically competent, but also ethically aligned and socially beneficial."
Is AI a threat to entry-level employment? All employment?
"AI optimism is largely confined to AI architects and executives calculating how much it can reduce headcount," writes Greg IP in The Wall Street Journal. Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Amazon, the leading promoters of AI, have all announced layoffs this year.
In 2025, AI ranked sixth among the reasons for reductions, but that ranking is likely to move up in the coming years. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) was the primary driver of total layoffs. Those terminations were in the federal sector and among related contractors, although some have returned to work.
Immediate and substantial job disruptions are possible. Long-term, technological innovation has a history of creating net jobs, many of which we can't see from here.
In the meantime, employers in more traditional fields struggle to find qualified, willing workers due to gaps in skills. Ford Motor Company CEO Jim Farley says he needs 5,000 well-trained mechanics — now. These are positions with annual salaries of up to $120,000.
Screens take up more of our time. Nielsen reported that Americans streamed twenty-one million years of video in 2023, up 21% from 2022. Forbes estimates that there are now 1.8 billion subscriptions to online video streaming services worldwide. Streaming's share of viewing is now greater than the combined share of broadcast and cable.
Tracking social media, Pew Research found that in addition to teens, a growing share of U.S. adults use Instagram, TikTok, WhatsApp, and Reddit, but YouTube remains the most popular source.
While there are over 4.5 million podcasts indexed globally, only around half a million update their programs regularly. Video podcasts are growing in number, but audio formats remain dominant for many.
Neil Postman's highly influential book, Amusing Ourselves to Death, published 40 years ago, offered something Megatrends didn't — a prescient look at the future of television and entertainment. His arguments were about the dominance of form over substance, the manipulation of perception through advertising, the emotional power of images, and the media's prioritization of spectacle over depth.
Postman's prediction that society would succumb not to censorship but to distractions has come true.
K-12 education's disturbing look. The Center on Reinventing Public Education, a research group at Arizona State University, reported that the average American student is "less than halfway to a full academic recovery from the effects of the pandemic five years ago."
The CRPE says that in the spring of 2023, just 56% of American fourth graders were performing on grade level in math, down from 69% in 2019. Recovery in reading has been slower, with some researchers finding essentially no rebound since students returned to the classroom.
Education Week studies show that 22% of students, or 10.8 million, are chronically absent, missing 10% of school, a figure higher than pre-pandemic levels, especially in urban areas.
Teachers say kids can't write a sentence or pay attention to a three-minute video. The switch to remote school, along with the trauma of a global health emergency, dealt a blow to students' learning, the Times concluded.
At the other end, employers see error-filled applications and difficulty with basic work documents, such as emails and proposals.
An era of groundbreaking pharmaceuticals. In just over a year, the percentage of U.S. adults taking drugs such as Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, and Zepbound more than doubled to 12.4%, according to Gallup. The survey also reported that the obesity rate fell from almost 40% in 2022 to 37% in 2025.
Approval for a pill version of Wegovy was granted to Norvo Nordisk by the Federal Drug Administration to begin this year, with a cash price of $149 per month for the starting dose.
Side effects notwithstanding, The Washington Post reports that these types of drugs could be revolutionary, extending lifespan and improving quality of life. Not to mention how people spend their time and money.
Needless to say, weight-loss drugs for the masses have potentially far-reaching humanitarian and societal benefits.
What discoveries are next?
Home ownership is in jeopardy. Even as existing home sales have increased in the past few months, a low housing supply and high prices ($415,000 median price for existing homes per the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) are discouraging buyers. The median age of first-time homebuyers was 40 in 2025, up from 28 in 1991, based on data from the National Association of Realtors.
Those under 44 saw significant growth in ownership beginning in 2019, but households under 35 saw declines due to affordability constraints, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Before the pandemic, families earning $75,000 a year could afford to buy about half of all listings. As of March 2025, these households could afford only 21% of listings, says the NAR.
The need to rediscover statecraft. "Do you not know, my son, with how very little wisdom the world is governed?" was said by Axel Oxenstierna, the Chancellor of Sweden, in a letter to his son Johan around 1648. This quote highlights the often irrational nature of political power and governance. Results from a 2025 Bentley/Gallup survey show that fewer than a third of U.S. adults trust Washington to act in society's best interests.
When good government occurs, it results from elected leaders being in touch with constituents, having strong moral character, and legislative skills.
Governing is hard work. A polarized culture makes it even harder.
A youthful search for faith. A variety of sources, including Dr. Ryan Burge from Washington University, The Lowy Institute, CNN, and Pew Research, have reached a consensus. There's a notable trend of increased faith and spiritual seeking among young adults (Gen Z and Millennials). This is marked by a rise in church attendance, belief in a higher power, and interest in Jesus. All are seeking hope and a sense of belonging in uncertain times. Observers say it's a search for meaning that continues despite the overall decline in religion.
Finding our way
"The most exciting breakthroughs of the 21st Century will not occur because of technology but because of an expanding concept of what it means to be human," said John Naisbett.
That insight was penned four decades before the advent of AI.
Knowing who we are and what we believe matters. Moral bearings, the internal sense of right and wrong, are necessary to help navigate a sometimes confused world. Since we can only glimpse the future, not fully predict it, the better position is to remain self-aware, flexible, and clear about our purpose in life.
Regardless of the unknowns, Naisbett would encourage us to be, as previous generations were, hopeful and expectant about tomorrow.
Strategist.com
© Bredholt & Co.
